Transform2Bio Sub-Project, Economic Modeling

Content

Overview
Contribution
Staff working on the project

Transform2Bio - Integrated Transformation Processes and Their Regional Implementations: Structural Change from Fossil Economy to Bioeconomy

Overview:

Our contribution to Transform2Bio is part of work package 3 on "Transformation Trajectories and Assessment" of the Project " Transform2Bio - Integrated Transformation Processes and their Regional Implementations: Structural Change from Fossil Economy to Bioeconomy" financed by the Bio-Economy Science Center

Ensuring the well-being of current and future generations without transgressing environmental limits is an overarching objective of the concept of the sustainable bioeconomy. Achieving this objective will require major transformations of existing resource systems, value networks, business models, infrastructures and governance systems. The recent decision of the German government to phase-out coal mining will initiate major transition processes in the lignite mining region, the Rheinische Revier, creating a unique opportunity for understanding the socio-technical dynamics and implementation options towards an entire sustainable bioeconomy region.

Against this background, Transform2Bio aims to systematically identify transformation trajectories for the implementation of a strong and sustainable bioeconomy in the Rheinische Revier. These transformation routes need to be, at the same time,

desirable (from a sustainability perspective)
possible (from a techno-economic perspective), and
acceptable (from a stakeholder consensus perspective).

Pooling expertise from (agricultural) economics, operations and innovation management, entrepreneurship, political science, economic development, consumer psychology and socio-technical systems analysis, the research approach of Transform2Bio follows the inter- and transdisciplinary sustainability research agenda integrating orientation, system, and transformation knowledge. As part of this multi-dimensional approach, Transform2Bio will establish an interactive stakeholder network, the Stakes2Bio Lab. It will provide the room both for continuous stakeholder dialogue ('society to science') and the establishment of regional 'science to society' networks. These will provide bioeconomy implementation options based on cutting-edge scientific research which can be readily tested against 'real world' stakeholder settings. In this regard, Transform2Bio also provides the crucial basis for the BioSC FocusLabs to readily reflect their concepts and potential products against 'real stakeholder responses' and with respect to their complementarity with expected transformation trajectories.

Contribution

Our group contributes to WP 3.1a Identification of farm-scale adaptation to bio-economy trajectories by:

Extension and application of the FarmDyn simulation model to samples of farms
Linkage between FarmDyn and CGEBox (WP3.1c) which provides regional-scale economic simulation for the Rheinische Revier

Related publications

Kuhn, T., Enders, A., Gaiser, T., Schäfer, D., Srivastava, A., Britz, W. (2019): Coupling crop and bio-economic farm modelling to evaluate the revised fertilization regulations in Germany, Agricultural Systems, Link.

Kuhn, T., Schäfer, D., Holm-Müller, K., Britz, W. (2019): On-farm compliance costs with the EU-Nitrates Directive: A modelling approach for specialized livestock production in northwest Germany, Agricultural Systems 173: 233-243, Link.

Kuhn, T., Schaefer, D. (2018): A farm typology for North Rhine-Westphalia to assess agri-environmental policies. Discussion Paper 2018:1.
Download: Discussion Paper

Britz W., Lengers, B,.Kuhn, T. and Schäfer, D. (2014): A highly detailed template model for dynamic optimization of farms - FARMDYN, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics, Version September 2016, 147 pages.

Britz, W., Roson, R., Sartori, M. (2019): SSP Long Run Scenarios for European NUTS2 Regions, in: Working Papers Department of Economics Ca' Foscari University of Venice, No. 22/WP/ 201 9, Link.