- Courses Summer Term 2018
- Master of Agricultural and Food Economics (AFECO)
- Theodor-Brinkmann-Graduate School
- Modeling structural change and agricultural nutrient flows across scales in regions of North Rhine-Westphalia Gefördert durch das Ministerium für Klimaschutz, Umwelt, Landwirtschaft, Natur- und Verbraucherschutz des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen im Rahmen des Lehr- und Forschungsschwerpunktes "Umweltverträgliche und Standortgerechte Landwirtschaft", 2016-2018
- Further projects
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Understanding spatial interactions and structural change in the dairy production chain with a dynamic regional Agent Based Model covering dairy farms and dairy processing
The central hypotheses to be investigated in this research project is that farm structural change in the German dairy sector is the outcome of the interaction between processes at the farm and processing level and that an improved understanding of these processes can be reached by the application of Agent Based Modelling (ABM), which allows to explicitly depict spatial interactions.
We therefore combine two strands of the literature in this research project:
- the analysis of structural change at farm level and
- structural change analysis at the dairy processing level.
A special focus will be on the use of ABM and explicit modeling of interaction between farms or dairies and farms as this stands at the center of our proposal. Information on the ABM to be used and further developed in the project can be found on the ABMSIM web page.
The objective of this research project is to understand the complex dynamic interaction between farm level structural change and changes on the raw milk processing stage and the resulting economic and environmental consequences for the agricultural sector, by conducting simulations for different regions with an ABM. The specific objectives of this project are the following:
- Objective 1: To develop a methodology to derive appropriate meta-models, reflecting different planning horizons, from a complex farm model and apply it to the parameterization of farm agents in the ABM
- Objective 2: To develop a behavioral model for dairies including investment decisions that describes spatial competition in raw milk markets for integration in the ABM
- Objective 3: To develop other key modules in the ABM such as a farm exit, farmland rental or dairy processing capacity adjustment module
- Objective 4: To integrate the results from objectives 1 - 3 into a dynamic ABM that than allows the modeling of spatially explicit the interaction between structural change at farm and processing level in the dairy production chain
- Objective 5: To understand how different structural starting conditions and different behavioral assumption impact structural change at farm and processing level, based on systematic scenario applications of the ABM
Given the integration of the farm and processing level in one ABM, this offers unique and innovative insights into determinants and interactions effects of structural change. The dairy sector is well suited for this analysis as there is this nearly perfect linkage between production and processing as only very little milk is sold directly at farm level. The expected outcomes are of relevance for the dairy farm sector and the dairy production chain as dairy production is an economically important part of the agricultural and food business. For the farm sectors, the regional structural change in the dairy sector has important implicit repercussions for regional land markets and landscapes. The medium- to long-term international competitiveness of the German dairy companies depends on the functioning and cost-efficient input sourcing.
Publications related to the project
Britz, W., Wieck, C. (2014): Analyzing structural change in dairy farming based on an Agent Based Model Download....
Last updated: Friday, April 07, 2017
- New H2020 research project MINDSTEP, 2019-2023
- New H2020 research project LIFT, 2018-2022
- Aus unserer Forschung: Effiziente Politikmassnahmen zur Foerderung von Kurzumtriebsplantagen
- An economic and environmental assessment of a glyphosate ban for the example of maize production (2019) Boecker, T., Moehring, N., Finger, R., Britz, W. (2019): An economic and environmental assessment of a glyphosate ban for the example of maize production, European Review of Agricultural Economics, available online 5th February 2019
- Econometric mathematical programming: an application to the estimation of costs and risk preferences at farm level (2019) Arata, L., Britz, W. (2019): Econometric mathematical programming: an application to the estimation of costs and risk preferences at farm level, Agricultural Economics, available online 8th January 2019
- Economic Impacts and Land Use Change from Increasing Demand for Forest Products in the European Bioeconomy: A General Equilibrium Based Sensitivity Analysis (2019) Haddad, S., Britz, W., Boerner, J. (2019): Economic Impacts and Land Use Change from Increasing Demand for Forest Products in the European Bioeconomy: A General Equilibrium Based Sensitivity Analysis, Forests, 10(1) 52: 1-27
- Modelling heterogeneous firms and non-tariff measures in free trade agreements using Computable General Equilibrium (2018) Jafari, Y. and Britz, W. (2018: Modelling heterogeneous firms and non-tariff measures in free trade agreements using Computable General Equilibrium, Economic Modelling, available online 23th April 2018
- Policy analysis of perennial energy crop cultivation at the farm level: Short rotation coppice (SRC) in Germany (2018) Spiegel, A., Britz, W., Djanibekov, U., Finger, R. (2018: Policy analysis of perennial energy crop cultivation at the farm level: Short rotation coppice (SRC) in Germany, Biomass and Bioenergy 110, March 2018: 41-56