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Integrated Impact Assessment of an Increase in Biofuel Demand in Europe: The Economic and Technological Dimension

Project for IPTS/DG-JRC, Sevilla, Call for tender No. No J05/32/2008

Overview

  • The main task of the project is to improve the analytical capacities for quantitative assessment of first and second generation bio-fuels production in Europe on agricultural markets, farm income and the environment, based on an extension of the CAPRI modelling system. The extended system will then be applied for impact assessment of bio-fuel policies. The project encompasses the following sub-tasks:.
    • Development of a biofuel component for CAPRI which includes European biofuel supply and global trade
    • Integration of a response surface of the energy model PRIMES in CAPRI to derive endogenous biofuel demand
    • Reference run for 2020 and counterfactual scenarios to test new system
  • Project period: 01/2009-04/2010

Contribution of ILR to the project

  1. Adaptation of the agricultural sector model CAPRI to cover the European biofuel market
    • Integration of bio-ethanol and bio-diesel in the global market model of CAPRI
    • Definition of suitable behavioral function for biofuel processing to derive endogenous biofuel feedstock demand
    • Development of a first prototype module for second generation biofuels
  2. Linking of the CAPRI model with an energy model PRIMES
    • Estimation of a response surface from existing PRIMES simulation results
    • Integration of the response surface into CAPRI
    • Discussion of suitable biofuel scenarios with the PRIMES team
  3. Scenario analysis
    • Implementation of suitable biofuel scenarios for 2020 and 2030 in line with requirements of the EU Commission (IPTS)
    • Scenario runs with the new developed CAPRI biofuel module and analysis of results

Partners

Publications related to the project

Wolfgang Britz and T. Hertel: Impacts of EU biofuels directives on global markets and EU environmental quality: An integrated PE, global CGE analysis , Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment , p. in press Link...

Arno Becker, Marcel Adenäuer and M. Blanco Fonseca: Impacts of European biofuel policies on agricultural markets and environment under consideration of 2nd generation technologies and international trade , selected paper presented at the IATRC Public Trade Policy Research and Analysis Symposium "Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security," June 27 - 29, 2010, Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart (Germany)

Wolfgang Britz and T. Hertel: Impacts of EU biofuels directives on global markets and EU environmental quality: An integrated PE, global CGE analysis , in: Integrated Assessment of Agriculture and Sustainable Development (AgSAP), 10-12 March, 2009, Egmont an Zee (The Netherlands) , p. 144-145

Current project team in Bonn


Last Updated:Thursday, January 05, 2017