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Integrated Impact Assessment of an Increase in Biofuel Demand in Europe: The Economic and Technological Dimension
Project for IPTS/DG-JRC, Sevilla, Call for tender No. No J05/32/2008Overview
- The main task of the project is to improve the analytical capacities for quantitative assessment of first and second generation bio-fuels production in Europe on agricultural markets, farm income and the environment, based on an extension of the CAPRI modelling system. The extended system will then be applied for impact assessment of bio-fuel policies. The project encompasses the following sub-tasks:.
- Development of a biofuel component for CAPRI which includes European biofuel supply and global trade
- Integration of a response surface of the energy model PRIMES in CAPRI to derive endogenous biofuel demand
- Reference run for 2020 and counterfactual scenarios to test new system
- Project period: 01/2009-04/2010
Contribution of ILR to the project
Adaptation of the agricultural sector model CAPRI to cover the European biofuel market
- Integration of bio-ethanol and bio-diesel in the global market model of CAPRI
- Definition of suitable behavioral function for biofuel processing to derive endogenous biofuel feedstock demand
- Development of a first prototype module for second generation biofuels
Linking of the CAPRI model with an energy model PRIMES
- Estimation of a response surface from existing PRIMES simulation results
- Integration of the response surface into CAPRI
- Discussion of suitable biofuel scenarios with the PRIMES team
Scenario analysis
- Implementation of suitable biofuel scenarios for 2020 and 2030 in line with requirements of the EU Commission (IPTS)
- Scenario runs with the new developed CAPRI biofuel module and analysis of results
Partners
- Institute for Food and Resource Economicis, Chair of Economic and Agricultural Policy, University Bonn (co-ordinator)
- Athens University, Institute of Communication and Computer Systems (ICCS)
Publications related to the project
Wolfgang Britz and T. Hertel: Impacts of EU biofuels directives on global markets and EU environmental quality: An integrated PE, global CGE analysis , Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment , p. in press Link...
Arno Becker, Marcel Adenäuer and M. Blanco Fonseca: Impacts of European biofuel policies on agricultural markets and environment under consideration of 2nd generation technologies and international trade , selected paper presented at the IATRC Public Trade Policy Research and Analysis Symposium "Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security," June 27 - 29, 2010, Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart (Germany)
Wolfgang Britz and T. Hertel: Impacts of EU biofuels directives on global markets and EU environmental quality: An integrated PE, global CGE analysis , in: Integrated Assessment of Agriculture and Sustainable Development (AgSAP), 10-12 March, 2009, Egmont an Zee (The Netherlands) , p. 144-145
Current project team in Bonn
Last Updated:Thursday, January 05, 2017
News
Winner of the 2019 Outstanding ERAE journal article:
Neuenfeldt, S., Gocht, A., Heckelei, T., Ciaian, P. (2019): Explaining farm structural change in the European agriculture: a novel analytical framework, European Review of Agricultural Economics 46(5): 713-768.
Contribution to DFG Excellence cluster PhenoRob, 2020-2024
Petition „Cercedilla manifesto: Research meetings must be more sustainable“
Recent publications
- Research meetings must be more sustainable, Sanz-Cobena, A., Alessandrini, R., Bodirsky, B. L., Springmann, M., Aguilera, E., Amon, B., Bartolini, F., Geupel, M., Grizzetti, B., Kugelberg, S., Latka, C., Liang, X., Milford, A. B., Musinguzi, P., Ng, E. L., Suter, H., Leip, A. (2020): Nature Food 1: 187-189.Modelling food security: Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale, Müller, B., Hoffmann, F., Heckelei, T., Müller, C., Hertel, T. W., Polhill, J. G., van Wijk, M., Achterbosch, T., Alexander, P., Brown, C., Kreuer, D., Ewert, F., Ge, J., Millington, J. D. A., Seppelt, R., Verburg, P. H., Webber, H. (2020): Global Environmental Change 63: 16 pages.Forecasting International Sugar Prices: A Bayesian Model Average Analysis, Amrouk, E. M., Heckelei, T. (2020): Sugar Tech: 11 pages.Brexit: an economy-wide impact assessment on trade, immigration, and foreign direct investment, Jafari, Y., Britz, W. (2020): Empirica 47(1): 17-52.Efficiency differentials in resource-use among smallholder cassava farmers in southwestern Cameroon, Molua, E. L., Tabe-Ojong, M. P., Meliko, M. O., Nkenglefac, M. F., Akamin, A. (2019): Development in Practice: 11 pages.New insights on efficiency and productivity analysis: Evidence from vegetable-poultry integration in rural Tanzania, Habiyaremye, N., Tabe-Ojong, M. P., Ochieng, J., Chagomoka, T. (2019): Scientific African 6(e00190): 11 pages.Explaining farm structural change in the European agriculture: a novel analytical framework, Neuenfeldt, S., Gocht, A., Heckelei, T., Ciaian, P. (2019): European Review of Agricultural Economics 46(5): 713-768.Machine learning in agricultural and applied economics Storm, H., Baylis, K., Heckelei, T. (2019): European Review of Agricultural Economics, jbz033: 44 pages