Content
- Overview
- Contribution of ILR to the project
- Staff at ILR working on the project
- Journal articles, working papers and conference contributions related to the project
Weitere Links
- Laufende Drittmittelprojekte
- abgeschlossene Drittmittelprojekte
- Laufende Dissertationsprojekte
- Abgeschlossene Dissertationen
Einrichtungen
Future Rural Africa:Future-making and social-ecological transformation
Project Title:
Future Rural Africa: Future-making and social-ecological transformation
Project duration (Phase 1): 2018 - 2021
Overview:
Africa´s future is the object of expectations, dreams, fears and contestations. It emerges from the present, but it is not
completely contingent. This is the starting point of the collaborative research center (CRC): Future-making, the CRC´s
key concept, means that ideas of the future are envisioned and translated into plans, policies, and spatial transformations.
They materialize along newly emerging development corridors, shifting bio-cultural frontiers and large-scale land-use changes.
The CRC addresses the intricate relationship between future-making and social-ecological transformation. It combines expertise
from different academic disciplines, ranging from geography, anthropology, and agronomy to political science, vegetation
ecology and virology. It is based at the University of Bonn, in cooperation with the University of Cologne. Other members
of this joint project are the Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC), the University of Münster, the Charité hospital
at Humboldt University in Berlin, and many cooperation partners in Africa.
The three study sites selected as examples for the CRC´s inception phase all have a connection to growth corridors, but
in different ways. In particular, the projects concentrate on three different examples:
- The Kenyan Rift Valley (KRV) in relation to the “Lamu Port – South Sudan – Ethiopia” (LAPSSET) corridor
- The Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania (SAGCOT)
- The Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area (KAZA) in southern Africa and its links to the Trans-Caprivi corridor that was recently expended to form the Walvis Bay-Ndola-Lubumbashi Development Corridor (WBNLDC).
For more details please visit Furture Rural Africa project website https://www.crc228.de/
Contribution of ILR
ILR contributes in the following projects:
Project A03: Agro-Futures: Scales of variability, human-environment interactions, and patterns in agro landscapes
To meet the growing food demand, several African countries opt for intensification by focusing crop production on high-potential
areas and by increasing the size of the production units. However, the challenges for achieving crop intensification
vary with the scales considered. Capital-intensive, large-scale land-use changes can enhance regional-scale agricultural
production but rarely consider variations in resource base quality and the dynamics of hydrological regimes, and may
no longer meet the multiple demands of diverse actors. Prevailing spatial-temporal differences in climatic, edaphic and
(socio)hydrological attributes, in production unit-specific resource endowments, and in market attributes are likely
to increase variabilities at the plot and household scales. The resulting risks and uncertainties on the one hand and
expectations on the other present a disincentive for individual production units to participate in intensification strategies.
Such considerations of the size and scale dependency of variability and its implications for future crop production will
be empirically tested for lowland rice intensification in the Kilombero floodplain in Tanzania. We will follow land-use
change processes over a 12-year period, covering the envisioned change towards “sustainable intensification” between
2018 and 2030. Socio-hydrological dynamics, farm/plot size dependent variability in yield and resource-use efficiency,
productivity, market opportunities and environment-actor interactions will be assessed.
The research within A03 will be conducted under the supervision of
- Becker, Mathias, Prof. Dr., Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn
- Heckelei, Thomas, Prof. Dr., Institute of Food and Resource Economics, University of Bonn
- Evers, Mariele, Prof. Dr., Geography Department, University of Bonn
Project B01: Invasive Futures: The social ecology of rangelands in changing savanna environments
This project aims to characterize and classify current rangeland scenarios along biophysical and social-economic gradients
and under different invasion conditions (species, intensity, and spread dynamics), and to project future trends in pasture
uses and their social-ecological implications. To test the hypothesis that rangeland systems will differentially evolve
in different social-ecological settings and be affected by the spread of invasive/encroaching plants, the project will address
the following objectives:
- Invasion dynamics:- Establish an inventory of major invasive/encroaching species and attributes of associated pasture vegetation and assess triggers, drivers, and dynamics of invasive spread
- Rangeland typology:- Assess and model biomass dynamics of rangelands, categorize rangeland quality and forage availability both seasonally and inter-annually, and determine phenology and digestibility of major species and (emerging) vegetation formations along biophysical gradients and with varying management regimes.
- Socio-economic implications:- Determine actual and perceived risks and coping strategies of major rangeland user groups and infer implications of economic mobility on future-related behaviour (social-ecological feed backs)
The research within B01 will be conducted under the supervision of
- Becker, Mathias, Prof. Dr., Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn
- Heckelei, Thomas, Prof. Dr., Institute of Food and Resource Economics, University of Bonn
Project Z03 Combined Farm/Household Survey
Across the three study areas of the CRC, a number of projects collaborate in the collection and use of primary data on
farm-household characteristics. Such data is essential for answering the research questions of various CRC projects including
A01, A03, A04, B01, B04, C01, C02, C03, and C06 for example: Will conservation contribute to well-being and declining poverty
levels? Will agricultural intensification create more wealth? How is educational status/gender/age of individuals related
to household decisions and related outcomes? How is migration of household members linked to future making processes? The
surveys are designed to address both comparative and project-specific research questions. During the first phase, the focus
lies on project-specific research questions, but comparison is pertinent in a number of projects already early on and address
issues such as differences in rural development or land use trends and farm-household responses to such trends in terms
of future making strategies and their outcomes.
The research within Z03 will be conducted under the supervision of
- Bollig, Michael, Prof. Dr., Department of Social and Cultural Anthropology, University of Cologne
- Börner, Jan, Prof. Dr., Institute for Food and Resource Economics (ILR) / Center of Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn
- Greiner, Clemens, Dr., Global South Studies Center, University of Cologne
- Heckelei, Thomas, Prof. Dr., Institute of Food and Resource Economics, University of Bonn
Staff at ILR working on the project
Principal investigators
Prof. Dr. Thomas Heckelei, ILR, University of Bonn
PhD students
Bisrat Haile Gebrekidan, ILR, University of Bonn
Martin Paul jr. Tabe-Ojong, ILR, University of Bonn
Funding:
Journal articles, working papers and conference contributions related to the project
Not yet
Last updated: Tuesday, March 10, 2020
News
Winner of the 2019 Outstanding ERAE journal article:
Neuenfeldt, S., Gocht, A., Heckelei, T., Ciaian, P. (2019): Explaining farm structural change in the European agriculture: a novel analytical framework, European Review of Agricultural Economics 46(5): 713-768.
Contribution to DFG Excellence cluster PhenoRob, 2020-2024
Petition „Cercedilla manifesto: Research meetings must be more sustainable“
Recent publications
- Research meetings must be more sustainable Sanz-Cobena, A., Alessandrini, R., Bodirsky, B. L., Springmann, M., Aguilera, E., Amon, B., Bartolini, F., Geupel, M., Grizzetti, B., Kugelberg, S., Latka, C., Liang, X., Milford, A. B., Musinguzi, P., Ng, E. L., Suter, H., Leip, A. (2020): Nature Food 1: 187-189.Paying the price for environmentally sustainable and healthy EU diets Latka, C., Kuiper, M., Frank, S., Heckelei, T., Havlik, P., Witzke, H.-P., Leip, A., Cui, H. D., Kuijsten, A., Geleijnse, J. M., van Dijk, M. (2021): Global Food Security 28: 10 pages.Long-Term Scenarios for Sub-Saharan Africa’s Agro-Food Markets with varying Population, Income and Crop Productivity Trends Kuhn, A., Britz, W. (2021): Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 46(1): 20-36.Integration of various dimensions in food-based dietary guidelines via mathematical approaches Report of a DGE/FENS Workshop in Bonn, Germany Schäfer, A. C., Schmidt, A., Bechthold, A., Boeing, H. ., Watzl, B., Darmon, N., Devleesschauwer, B., Heckelei, T., Pires, S. M., Nadaud, P., van Dooren, C., Vieux, F. (2020): British Journal of Nutrition: 1-18.Mitigating the impacts of floods using adaptive and resilient coping strategies: The role of the emergency Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty program (LEAP) in Ghana Tabe-Ojong, M. P. J., Boakye, J. A., Muliro, M. (2020): Journal of Environmental Management 270: 8 pages.Production and supply of tomato in Cameroon: Examination of the comparative effect of price and non-price factors Tabe-Ojong, M. P. J., Molua, E. L., Nzie, J. R. M., Fuh, G. L. (2020): Scientific African 10: 13 pages.Production, consumption and market diversification of grain legumes in the humid forest agroecology of cameroon Tabe-Ojong, M. P. J., Molua, E. L., Ngoh, S. B., Beteck, S. E. (2021): Sustainable Production and Consumption 27: 193–202.(Dynamic) willingness to pay and e-commerce: Insights from sparkling wine sector in Russia Fedoseeva, S. (2020): Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services 57: 12 pagesCharacterizing Farmers and Farming System in Kilombero Valley Floodplain, Tanzania Gebrekidan, B. H., Heckelei, T., Rasch, S. (2020): Sustainability 12(7114): 1-21.Market and Welfare Impact Assessment of the Target Price-Based Subsidy Program in the Chinese Cotton Market Shang, L., Jafari, Y., Heckelei, T. (2020): Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development (AJAD) 17.1: 53-70.Can Food Waste Reduction in Europe Help to Increase Food Availability and Reduce Pressure on Natural Resources Globally? Jafari, Y., Britz, W., Dudu, H., Roson, R., Sartori, M. (2020): German Journal of Agricultural Economics 69(2): 143-168.Modelling food security: Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale Müller, B., Hoffmann, F., Heckelei, T., Müller, C., Hertel, T. W., Polhill, J. G., van Wijk, M., Achterbosch, T., Alexander, P., Brown, C., Kreuer, D., Ewert, F., Ge, J., Millington, J. D. A., Seppelt, R., Verburg, P. H., Webber, H. (2020): Global Environmental Change 63: 16 pages.Forecasting International Sugar Prices: A Bayesian Model Average Analysis Amrouk, E. M., Heckelei, T. (2020): Sugar Tech: 11 pages.Brexit: an economy-wide impact assessment on trade, immigration, and foreign direct investment Jafari, Y., Britz, W. (2020): Empirica 47(1): 17-52.Efficiency differentials in resource-use among smallholder cassava farmers in southwestern Cameroon Molua, E. L., Tabe-Ojong, M. P., Meliko, M. O., Nkenglefac, M. F., Akamin, A. (2019): Development in Practice: 11 pages.New insights on efficiency and productivity analysis: Evidence from vegetable-poultry integration in rural Tanzania Habiyaremye, N., Tabe-Ojong, M. P., Ochieng, J., Chagomoka, T. (2019): Scientific African 6(e00190): 11 pages.Explaining farm structural change in the European agriculture: a novel analytical framework Neuenfeldt, S., Gocht, A., Heckelei, T., Ciaian, P. (2019): European Review of Agricultural Economics 46(5): 713-768.Machine learning in agricultural and applied economics Storm, H., Baylis, K., Heckelei, T. (2019): European Review of Agricultural Economics, jbz033: 44 pages