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Long-term developments in agricultural and food markets including climate change impacts
Within this research line we combine econometric analyses, e.g. of global yield gaps, with Bayesian based forecast exercises and partial equilibrium modelling. Particularly for climate change impact assessment, we further improve and apply the link of the CAPRI modelling system to bio-physical modelling - often in cooperation with the Institute for Crop Sciences and Resource Conservation. Some of the projects are also concerned with greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture.
Recent methodological work focuses on incorporating land supply and demand into CAPRI and improving the parameterization of CAPRI's demand components for long-term analyses.
Ongoing research projects
- MACSUR (Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security, 1st project phase 2012-2015, JPI-FACCE)
- EU project SUSFANS (Metrics, Models and Foresight for European SUStainable Food And Nutrition Security, 2015-2018, Horizon 2020)
- GLUES (Global Assessment of Land Use dynamics on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Ecosystem Services, BMBF, 2010-2015)
- Contribution to WP 6 (policy relevant applications, since 2012) of LIAISE (Network of Excellence in the European Research Framework Program 7 on Impact Assesssment, 2009-2014) with an application on Climate Change Impacts on European agriculture and possible adaptation measures
- EC4MACS (European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate Strategies, EU-Life program, 2007-2012)
Delince, J., Ciaian, P., Witzke, H.-P. (2015): Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: the AgMIP approach , Journal of Applied Remote Sensing 9(1) , Link.
Shrestha, S. ., Ciaian, P., Himics, M., van Doorslaer, B. (2013): Impacts of climate change on EU agriculture, Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics 16(2): 24-39 , Link.
Conference contributions, reports
Heckelei, T. (2015): Model change for Climate Change? Challenges and opportunities for economic modelling, invited paper presented at the MACSUR Conference 2015, “Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food, April 8-9, 2015, Reading (UK).
Frank, S., Witzke, P., Zimmermann, A., Havlik, P., Ciaian, P. (2014): Climate Change Impacts on European Agriculture: A Multi Model Perspective, Selected paper presented at the 14zh EAAE-Congress, August 26-29, Ljubljana (Slovenia).
Ciscar, J., Feyen, L., Soria, A., Lavalle, C., Raes, F., Perry, M., Nemry, F., Demirel, H., Rozsai, M., Dosio, A., Donatelli, M., Shrestha, S. ., Ciaian, P., Himics, M., van Doorslaer, B. (2014): Climate Impacts in Europe. The JRC PESETA II project, in: European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Report EUR 26586 EN, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2014 Download , Link.
Adenäuer, M., Wieck, C., Witzke, H.-P. (2013): Global land use change: Intensification or extensification? Selected paper presented at the 133rd EAAE-Seminar, June 14-15, 2013, Chania (Greece).
Stocco, L., Adenäuer, M., Zimmermann, A. (2013): Global land use response in agricultural sector models: estimating supply and area response in Argentina, selected paper presented at the 133rd EAAE-Seminar, June 14-15, 2013, Chania (Greece).
Britz, W., Adenäuer, M., Heckelei, T. (2013): Exploring New Ideas for Trade and Agriculture Model Integration for Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security , selected paper presented at the International Workshop "Food Security Assessment with CAPRI", March 3-5,2013, Haifa (Israel).
Witzke, H.-P., Frank, S., Zimmermann, A., Havlik, P., Ciaian, P. (2013): The impact of climate change on food security, Poster presented at the First International Conference on Global Food Security 2013, September 29 - October 2,2013, Noordwijkerhout (The Netherlands).
de Vries, W., Wolf, J., Britz, W., Adenäuer, M., Enders, A., Kanellopoulos, A., Van Ittersum, M., Kros, H., Reinds, G. J. (2013): Agricultural adaptation to climate Change under different policy environments: an integrated assessment of impacts , selected paper presented at the ECCA Conference 2013, March 18 - 20, 2013, Hamburg (Germany).
Wolf, J., Reidsma, P., Schaap, B., Mandryk, M., Kanellopoulos, A., Ewert, F., van Oort, P., Angulo, C., Rumbaur, C., Lock, R., Enders, A., Adenäuer, M., Heckelei, T., Rötter, R., Fronzek, S., Carter, T. R. ., Verhagen, A., Van Ittersum, M. (2012): Assessing the adaptive capacity of agriculture in the Netherlands to the impacts of climate change under different market and policy scenarios (AgriAdapt project) , Link.
Last updated: Thursday, January 05, 2017
- Theodor-Brinkmann-Award 2017 for Dr. Sebastian Rasch
- Exam dates summer term 2017
- Economic and Agricultural Policy Group contribution to 2017 EAAE congress
- Climate change impacts on crop yields, land use and environment in response to crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements Zimmermann, A., Webber, H., Zhao, G., Ewert, F., Kros, H., Wolf, J., Britz, W. and de Vries, W. (2017):
"Climate change impacts on crop yields, land use and environment in response to crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements", Agricultural Systems 157, p. 81-92Effect of off-farm income on smallholder commercialization: panel evidence from rural households in Ethiopia Woldeyohanes, T. B., Heckelei, T. and Surry, Y. (2017):
"Effect of off-farm income on smallholder commercialization: panel evidence from rural households in Ethiopia", Agricultural Economics 48(2), p. 207-218Metrics, models and foresight for European sustainable food and nutrition security: The vision of the SUSFANS project Rutten, M., Achterbosch, T., de Boer, I., Crespo Cuaresma, J., Geleijnse, M., Havlik, P., Heckelei, T., Ingram, J. S., Leip, A., Marette, S., van Meijl, H., Soler, L. -G., Swinnen, J. F., van't Veer, P., Vervoort, J., Zimmermann, A., Zimmermann, K. and Zurek, M. (2016):
"Metrics, models and foresight for European sustainable food and nutrition security: The vision of the SUSFANS project", Agricultural Systems (in press)Assessing the resilience of a real-world social-ecological system: lessons from a multidisciplinary evaluation of a South African pastoral system Linstädter, A., Kuhn, A., Naumann, C., Rasch, S., Sandhage-Hofmann, A., Amelung, W., Jordaan, J., Du Preez, C. and Bollig, M.(2016):
"Assessing the resilience of a real-world social-ecological system: lessons from a multidisciplinary evaluation of a South African pastoral system", Ecology and Society 23(3)Impact of biofuel development on Malaysian agriculture: a comparative statics, multicommodity, multistage production, partial equilibrium approach Jafari, Y. and Othman, J.(2016):
"Impact of biofuel development on Malaysian agriculture: a comparative statics, multicommodity, multistage production, partial equilibrium approach ", Food and Energy SecurityUncertainty in future irrigation water demand and risk of crop failure for maize in Europe Webber, H., Gaiser, T., Oomen, R., Teixeira, E., Zhao, G., Wallach, D., Zimmermann, A., Ewert, F. (2016):
"Uncertainty in future irrigation water demand and risk of crop failure for maize in Europe", Environmental Research Letters 11(7)Directional Volatility Spillovers Between Agricultural, Crude Oil, Real Estate, and Other Financial Markets Grosche, S. and Heckelei, T.(2016):
"Directional Volatility Spillovers Between Agricultural, Crude Oil, Real Estate, and Other Financial Markets", in: Kalkuhl, M., von Braun, J. and Torero, M. (eds.), Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy: 183 - 205, Springer